The changing seasons in Puerto Rico has taken away crop yields and freshwater!

The seasonal changes in Puerto Rico have taken a drastic impact on their land and the ability to grow crops. According to the Dept. of Agricultural and Biosystems and Climate Science Department of Berkley National Laboratory, in the next 50 years the crop yield will drop by 60%, precipitation will continue to increase, and the main source of freshwater from aquifers will dry up. This can greatly inhibit the growth of Puerto Rico’s economy, since it is solely based upon agriculture.

In the Agricultural Water Management Journal, the results of the study were published recently this summer. The study was done to predict effects on the amount of precipitation in relation to the reduction of crop yields. To do this the Agricultural/Biosystems and Climate Science departments have teamed up to create and mathematical model to represent the future predictions. Three different parts of Puerto Rico that were studied are: Adjuntas, Mayaguez, and Lajas. Within each region three different years were projected: 2000, 2050, and 2090. One set of data contained the data collected during the wet seasons, and another set consists of the dryer seasons.

In the Lajas it is projected that almost 80% of the crops will be reduced by 2090. Not only has crops decreased in yields it is found that the aquifer recharge rate was 0. This means that either the water evaporated quicker than water could reach the aquifer or there was not enough precipitation that year. Comparing the results in the year 2090 and the results in the year 2000 there is a dramatic difference in the crop yields. In 2000, the findings show that there was close to a 70% in crop yields. Barely reaching 100 years there has been a 10% increase.

With the changing seasons, the rainy seasons will become wetter than before, and the dryer seasons will become even dryer than before. In other regions such as the Mayaguez will perhaps experience this in the next 80 years. During the month of September the precipitation rate increased almost 300mm between year 2000 and 2090. However during the dryer months, February the precipitation was as low as 40mm. This justifies that during the wet seasons it is only going to get wetter, and during the dryer seasons it will just get dryer.

Although these are only projection based on a mathematical model, these are possible outcomes that may happen in the future. Scientists that published the results cautioned that the data only considered simple assumptions; there are still possible doubts with the climate projections. However this is a first step to expand our knowledge to the changing climate that affects the fertile soil, and freshwater aquifers.

Reference:

Dept. of Agricultural and Biosystems Engineering,, Climate Science Department, Earth Sciences Division,, Earth and Planetary Science Department, and Department of Mechanical Engineering. "Seasonal climate change impacts on evapotranspiration, precipitation deficit and crop yield in Puerto Rico." Agricultural Water Management 96.7: 1085-095. Web. .